Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2031–2032 25.5%Líder entre 7 opções
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado18/06/26, 02:13 UTC1/01/36, 00:00 UTC
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When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
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The question: When will the first genuine data center — meaning >=1 MW of compute (IT) power — be operating in space?
- This is deliberately set well above "a computer in orbit." A single GPU (Starcloud-1, Nov 2025) or a couple of "nodes" (Axiom, Jan 2026) are about 1 kW class and do not count. 1 MW (roughly 1,000 datacenter-class GPUs) is the threshold where orbital compute becomes real infrastructure rather than a demonstrator.
- Resolves to the year in which the first qualifying facility is first confirmed operational, per a credible company announcement corroborated by at least one major outlet (Reuters, CNBC, Data Center Dynamics, etc.).
- What counts:
- A single spacecraft, or a tightly co-located cluster operating as one data center, delivering >=1 MW of IT/compute power (power drawn by the compute hardware, not total bus/array capacity).
- "Operational" = powered on and running real compute workloads in orbit — not merely launched, not a ground test, not a planned/announced capacity.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2031–2032 em 26% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space? é resolvido?
- When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2036.
- Como When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The question: When will the first genuine data center — meaning >=1 MW of compute (IT) power — be operating in space?