Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualLater than 2032 58.2%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
17
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+8.2 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado21/07/25, 00:54 UTC21/01/33, 00:44 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starlink officially announce an IPO?
KalshiSpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the earliest year in which a SpaceX Starship successfully lands on the Martian surface.
- A successful landing is defined as a Starship spacecraft touching down on Mars without catastrophic failure, as confirmed by official SpaceX communications or reputable news outlets.
- If no such landing occurs by the end of 2032, the market will resolve to "the named outcome." If SpaceX announces the cancellation of the Starship Mars program, the market will resolve to "Never."
- Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, has outlined ambitious plans for Mars exploration using the Starship spacecraft.
- In September 2024, Musk announced intentions to launch uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in 2026, aiming to test landing capabilities.
Mercados abertos
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt94%
- Yes-1.2pt6%
- Volume total
- € 19,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 263 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-10.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-12.0pt49%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt91%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt88%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt83%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+9.0pt34%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+6.0pt27%
- Before Apr 1, 202717%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 7 mi
KALSHIWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Before Jan 1, 202878%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
- Volume total
- € 13 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 8,1 mil
POLYMARKETDiscord IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2027-16.1pt62.6%
- 8–11B+6.7pt10.1%
- 11–14B-0.1pt8.1%
+5 mais resultados
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will Starship land on Mars??
- A Manifold Markets cota Later than 2032 em 58% em 20 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will Starship land on Mars? é resolvido?
- When will Starship land on Mars? deverá ser resolvido em 21 de janeiro de 2033.
- Como When will Starship land on Mars? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria