What will happen as a result of the shooting of Renee Good in the next 2 Years?
One-OffPolítica dos EUACrime e justiça1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualThe ICE agent is charged by Minnesota authorities 71.5%Líder entre 14 opções
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado8/01/26, 02:17 UTC10/01/28, 02:16 UTC
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Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use subjective judgment to determine whether a future ICE civilian killing qualifies as being "as a result of" the prior ICE shooting in Minneapolis.
- Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer about "medical leave, paid vacation, and required to attend a two-week training program" will be interpreted broadly as the ICE agent receiving a slap on the wrist, rather than requiring exact adherence to the specific details (e.g., exactly two weeks of training).
- Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Border Patrol is not ICE - for this answer to resolve YES, the killing must be by an ICE agent specifically, not by Border Patrol or other federal agents.
- Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "the named outcome" to resolve YES, the creator will use subjective judgment to determine causation.
- The creator considers that increased tensions between protestors/observers leading to more conflicts leading to someone getting shot would satisfy the "as a result of" requirement.
