Quais são as probabilidades atuais de U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 88.9% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 88.9%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 7 horas

Desatualizado

3/11/25, 23:51 UTC20/01/29, 11:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

This market resolves YES if, at any point during Donald Trump’s current presidency, the United States tests or uses a nuclear weapon.

“Test” means any nuclear detonation — underground, atmospheric, or subcritical — officially conducted or authorized by the U.S. government for research, maintenance, or demonstration purposes.
“Use” means the detonation of a nuclear weapon in military action or combat.
The market resolves NO if Trump’s presidency ends without either event occurring.
Sources: Resolution will be based on official U.S. government statements (e.g. Department of Defense (“War”), Department of Energy, or the White House) or confirmation by major media outlets such as Reuters, AP, BBC, or The New York Times.