Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 87.7%
Previsores
2
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 58 minutos
Atrasado22/09/26, 14:32 UTC28/10/26, 12:00 UTC
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PolymarketWill California pass a wealth tax referendum in 2026?
PredictItRegras
YES if the Budget announces a recurring tax on net wealth.
- Polymarket priced this at about 12% on 21 Sep 2026.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.