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Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

RegulamentaçãoOne-Off3m

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Sim 90.4%

Previsores

5

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 13 horas

Desatualizado

10/04/26, 21:40 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

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Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, a publicly or commercially available AI system is widely recognized by relevant experts, technical benchmarks, or industry consensus as having "comparable cyber capabilities" to the Mythos system.
Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
"Comparable cyber capabilities" will be assessed based on the ability of an AI system to perform automated, end-to-end vulnerability research, exploit development, and cyber-offensive operations at a performance level similar to or exceeding those demonstrated by Mythos as of April 2026. "Widely available" means accessible to the general public, developers, or enterprise customers via API, software license, or open-source release.
In the event of ambiguity regarding the capabilities of Mythos or the successor systems, resolution will rely on consensus from credible cybersecurity researchers, AI safety organizations, or major technical publications (e.g., reports from NIST, CISA, or peer-reviewed AI/security literature).
If no clear consensus exists, the market will resolve based on the preponderance of evidence at that time.

Mercados abertos

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

No+2.0pt86%
Yes-2.0pt14%

Volume total: € 12,4 mi
Volume 24h: € 182,3 mil

Anthropic IPO by which date?

December 31,-1.0pt90%
December 15,+3.5pt90%
November 30,85%

+7 mais resultados

Volume total

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%

+7 mais resultados

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

Before 2028+3.0pt67%
Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%

+8 mais resultados

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
Before Jan 1, 202795%
Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%

+9 mais resultados

Volume total: € 1,4 mi

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

$1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
$1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
$1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%

+5 mais resultados

Perguntas frequentes

Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available??: A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 90% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
Quando Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? é resolvido?: Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
Como Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? é liquidado?: A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria

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