Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030?

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 85.5% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

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Sim 85.5%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Atualizado há 15 horas

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15/11/23, 10:15 UTC30/12/30, 22:59 UTC

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I am open to improving or editing the resolution criteria significantly in the first 48 hours.

Feel free to make suggestions for improvements.
Resolution Criteria: Will there be a scientific consensus (in my subjective opinion) that CO2 levels above >1200ppm are bad for cognitive capacity.
What would a consensus look like: several meta analysis concluding the data shows a significant cognitive decline even at moderate CO2 levels (like 1200ppm).
Several rigorous, high powered studies, showing cognitive decline isolated to CO2 levels.