Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 68.7%
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado29/11/25, 14:57 UTC31/12/39, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiRegras
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2030, a high‑budget, theatrically released Batman movie explicitly portraying Bruce Wayne/Batman as gay will be released before January 1st 2040 (or has already been released).
- What counts as “strong evidence”?
- Strong evidence (before 2030) includes any of the following:
- The movie is actually released and meets all the criteria below.
- Principal photography has begun on a movie clearly marketed as a major Batman film, with reputable trade outlets and/or official studio materials explicitly stating that this version of Bruce Wayne/Batman is gay/queer and the film is intended for a wide, blockbuster‑scale release.
- A widely covered studio announcement (e.g. press release, investor presentation, or major‑trade exclusive plus follow‑up confirmation) describes a big‑budget Batman movie with an openly gay/queer Bruce Wayne and gives a planned release date before 2040, with no credible subsequent reports that the queer aspect has been removed.
Mercados abertos
Box Office / StreamingKALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 50+3.0pt99%
- Above 45-3.0pt96%
- Above 55+4.0pt94%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 314,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 33,6 mil
POLYMARKETWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 152%
- Crew Girl: Season 135%
- NFL Melbourne Game: 49ers vs. Rams30%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 586,3
KALSHIWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+11 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 76,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 455,5
KALSHIDisney+ App Downloads in September
- Above 11945%
- Above 123+2.0pt37%
- Above 12929%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 7,1 mil
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETHow many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?
- 8M+95%
- 6M+58%
- 12M+55%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 30,1
KALSHIParamount+ App Downloads in September
- Above 7957%
- Above 82-1.0pt51%
- Above 8351%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,2 mil
- Volume 24h
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Gay Batman blockbuster by 2040??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 69% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Gay Batman blockbuster by 2040? é resolvido?
- Gay Batman blockbuster by 2040? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2039.
- Como Gay Batman blockbuster by 2040? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2030, a high‑budget, theatrically released Batman movie explicitly portraying Bruce Wayne/Batman as gay will be released before January 1st 2040 (or has already been released).