Quais são as probabilidades atuais de On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born??

A Manifold Markets cota South America em 34.1% em 20 de outubro de 2026.

On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados

Dados de 20 de out. de 2026, 19:58 UTC · política pm-quality-4

Previsão da comunidade atual

South America 34.1%

Líder entre 7 opções

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Variação 7d

0.0 pts

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 50 minutos

Atrasado

3/04/24, 18:51 UTC3/04/74, 03:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

The current pope (Francis) is from Argentina, making him the first pope to be from the named outcome and the first pope from the Southern Hemisphere.

The next several Popes have likely already been born.
In which continent will the first Pope born after 2024-04-03 18:50:00+00 be born?
[image]Respectfully modified from @Bayesian's excellent market: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/on-which-continent-will-the-next-po, in turn respectfully modified from @strutheo's excellent market:
@/strutheo/which-country-will-the-next-pope-fo