On January 1st 2027, will I think Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales is obviously a US citizen?
One-OffPolítica dos EUASociedade e cultura2mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 62.6%
Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado13/02/26, 23:08 UTC31/12/26, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
US Military kills 1+ US Citizen in military strike on alleged drug traffickers?
Manifold MarketsIf a US citizen is deported before 2029, will they be returned to the US before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump succeed in revoking the citizenship of any birthright US citizen?
Manifold MarketsWill I (an 18-year-old male US citizen) be drafted into the US military before Jan 1, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIdaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
PolymarketWill a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegras
DHS had detained Diaz Morales, who claims to be a US citizen; their official statement is that she is Mexican with no legal status in the US.
- As of the time of writing, she is temporarily released with an ankle monitor and check-ins with ICE.
- [tweet]https://www.newsweek.com/ice-detains-maryland-woman-us-citizen-claims-dhs-denies-11257159
- Resolves YES if I think she is obviously a US citizen on January 1st 2027.
- Update 2026-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies that the resolution standard is whether they think it's "obviously" a US citizen - a higher standard than just thinking it's true.
- The creator acknowledges this is a subjective judgment that may be difficult for traders to verify or predict, and that they could potentially weigh evidence wrongly at resolution time.
