Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 56.3%
Previsores
51
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado29/08/23, 03:29 UTC2/01/27, 07:59 UTC
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The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/
- There is sometimes speculation about whether the author Wertifloke is a pseudonym of noted rationalist fanfic author Eliezer Yudkowsky.
- Let's bet on it!
- This market is conditional on strong evidence coming out in favor of one outcome or the other.
- This market will trust Eliezer Yudkowsky's honor not to lie, and if he makes a relevant joke, to admit that it was a joke when asked.
- Likewise it will trust the word of others with a strong record of commitment to the truth.
Mercados abertos
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- Yes-6.0pt5%
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- No+1.5pt80.2%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 56% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? é resolvido?
- Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/