Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Is 1. g4 a losing move for white??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 67.5% em 28 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Is 1. g4 a losing move for white? é resolvido?

Is 1. g4 a losing move for white? deverá ser resolvido em 22 de maio de 2099.

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Sim 67.5%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 47 minutos

Atrasado

21/05/23, 23:21 UTC22/05/99, 06:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

In the chess engine world, there has been a lot of discussion about whether the Grob opening is a forced loss for white.

It seems like there's somewhat of a conensus that it is a win for black, but it's nowhere near proven with Stockfish around -1.2 for the position.
The resource that I always look at to see how the Grob opening is evaluated is https://chessdb.cn/queryc_en/ where it has been searched for ages.
Someone's even made a page which graphs what the evaluation has been over time on chessdb after the move 1.g4.
Resolves YES if after 1. g4, Black is able to force a win assuming optimal play.
Resolves NO if white can force a draw or win.