Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 83.9%
Previsores
17
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado2/12/24, 19:11 UTC1/01/27, 05:59 UTC
Tendências
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KalshiRegras
This market resolves to YES if Taylor Swift publicly confirms or credible sources report that she used a surrogate for any pregnancy resulting in a child born before January 1, 2027.
- If she becomes pregnant and gives birth herself, the market resolves to NO.
- If Taylor Swift does not get pregnant/a surrogate does not become pregnant with a child Taylor plans to raise before January 1, 2027, the market resolves to N/A. • “Credible sources” include major news outlets or statements from Swift or her representatives.
- • Speculative rumors without credible backing will not suffice for a YES resolution.
- • Wording note: one commenter has said “if she uses a surrogate she isn’t pregnant” and while this is technically accurate, it has become common parlance for celebrities to describe surrogacy as a pregnancy, or announce a pregnancy and later reveal that a surrogate was involved.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 84% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate? é resolvido?
- If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves to YES if Taylor Swift publicly confirms or credible sources report that she used a surrogate for any pregnancy resulting in a child born before January 1, 2027.