Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBelow normal (2.53 < ACE < 73) 82.2%Líder entre 6 opções
Previsores
35
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+4.6 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado2/05/26, 05:37 UTC30/11/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
0.5%
0.2%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Manifold MarketsHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
PolymarketWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
PolymarketWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season produce at least 3 hurricanes by October 15?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Atlantic hurricane form?
KalshiRegras
Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy.
- This Wikipedia page has a list of previous Atlantic hurricane seasons by ACE.
- If the value is 10 or more ACE away from one of the cutoff values, this market resolves in January 2025 to whatever value is listed on Wikipedia.
- If it is close to a cutoff, the market resolves after the reanalysis of all storms is completed (usually in April) to account for postseason adjustments in ACE.
- The last ten years had the following activity: Near normal: 2022 Above normal: 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2025 Hyperactive: 2017, 2020, 2024
- The least active season in recorded history was 1914, while the most active season was 1933.
Mercados abertos
WeatherKALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 251,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 244,3 mil
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 10, 2026?
- 91° or above+29.0pt92.4%
- 89° to 90°-20.0pt3.8%
- 87° to 88°-9.0pt0.9%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 10, 2026?
- 90° to 91°+40.0pt79.8%
- 92° to 93°16.5%
- 88° to 89°-31.0pt0.9%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 101 mil
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 10, 2026?
- 85° to 86°+27.0pt66.3%
- 84° or below-12.0pt15.4%
- 87° to 88°-12.0pt15.4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?
- Fay+2.0pt37%
- Gonzalo+2.0pt27%
- Hanna+4.0pt16%
+18 mais resultados
KALSHIHighest temperature in Oklahoma City on Sep 10, 2026?
- 85° to 86°+23.0pt44.8%
- 87° to 88°-3.0pt18.1%
- 89° to 90°+11.0pt16.4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 10, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 10, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 10, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Seattle on Sep 10, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 11?
- Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 11?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 10, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 11?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 10, 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be??
- A Manifold Markets cota Below normal (2.53 < ACE < 73) em 82% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be? é resolvido?
- How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de novembro de 2026.
- Como How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy.