Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 88%
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado5/01/24, 20:45 UTC1/01/41, 05:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
Manifold MarketsDid Lyme disease come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiRegras
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after HIV is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject.
- I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- (For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)
- If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely.
Mercados abertos
Sports
POLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,9 mi
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 24,5 mi
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Volume total
- € 2,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 24,6 mi
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Volume total
- € 1,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Volume total
- € 1,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,6 mi
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Did HIV come from a laboratory??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 88% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Did HIV come from a laboratory? é resolvido?
- Did HIV come from a laboratory? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2041.
- Como Did HIV come from a laboratory? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.