Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 72.4%
Previsores
2,243
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 minutos
1/09/22, 03:51 UTC1/01/40, 08:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
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KalshiRegras
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject.
- For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market
- I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l
Mercados abertos
SportsKALSHISekulic vs Matsuda
- Philip Sekulic58.2%
- Koki Matsuda+7.0pt41.8%
- Volume total
- € 4,5 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 4,5 mi
KALSHIAmgen Irish Open Winner
- Joaquin Niemann+18.7pt19.5%
- Rory McIlroy11%
- Jon Rahm-1.4pt5.1%
+97 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 5,4 mi
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R-1.0pt14%
- Buffalo+1.0pt7.9%
- Seattle-1.0pt6.1%
+29 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 78 mi
KALSHITampa Bay vs Atlanta
- Atlanta-3.0pt50.5%
- Tampa Bay+2.0pt49.5%
- Volume total
- € 2,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 2,6 mi
KALSHIFenerbahce vs Roma
- Roma-6.0pt40.4%
- Tie+9.0pt37.4%
- Fenerbahce-7.0pt22.2%
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHISan Francisco vs Los Angeles R
- Los Angeles R64.4%
- San Francisco35.6%
- Volume total
- € 3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,9 mi
- FC Bayern München vs. FK Bodø/Glimt
- Trevisan vs Maristany Zuleta de Reales
- Manchester United vs Sabah Masazir
- Amgen Irish Open End of Round 1 Leader
- Eindhoven vs Shakhtar
- Tampa Bay vs Atlanta: Total Runs
- Lagutin vs Alcala Gurri
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles: Spread
- UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Bayern Munich vs Bodoe/Glimt
- MVP Winner?
- US Open Men's Singles Winner
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de O COVID-19 veio de um laboratório??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 72% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando O COVID-19 veio de um laboratório? é resolvido?
- O COVID-19 veio de um laboratório? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2040.
- Como O COVID-19 veio de um laboratório? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.