Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 84.8%
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado3/01/24, 21:04 UTC2/01/30, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030
Manifold MarketsCredible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2028
Manifold MarketsCredible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028
Manifold MarketsWill credible evidence emerge linking Richard David Precht to Putin before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRegras
This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.
- Any kind of dementia counts.
- Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.
- https://www.newsweek.com/stop-talking-about-bidens-mental-acuity-start-talking-about-trumps-signs-dementia-opinion-1853741
- I do not bet on my markets.