Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
9.5 pts (24h)Tecnologia4mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualIFT 14 61.1%+9.5ptLíder entre 13 opções
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19/03/24, 3:462/01/27, 15:59
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An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.
- I will add an the named outcome if Other is larger than any other option for a non-trivial period of time (and so on, by induction)
- If SpaceX changes the naming convention, for example to OFT, this question will still apply.
- If SpaceX announces before the named outcome that the named outcome will orbit, the named outcome would be the one to resolve YES.
- If they did this I would still wait until before the (eg) #6 flight to check they didn't change it based on what happened in #5
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit??
- A Manifold Markets cota IFT 14 em 61% em 21 de agosto de 2026.
- Quando Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? é resolvido?
- Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.