Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
CriptoOne-OffPolíticaPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 202612d
LimitlessVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosCalibração aproximadaProbabilidade implícita atual
Democratic Party 65.5%
Democratic Party 65.5%Qualidade do mercado
22 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Liquidez desconhecidaDados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
4/08/26, 13:37 UTC3/11/26, 00:00 UTC
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KalshiBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
LimitlessRegras
the named outcome · the named outcome.
Additional context — Updated Oct 2, 2026
This market's rules have been updated for clarity.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats.
- If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency.
- If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included.
- Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
- Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
- If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
3 plataformas cotam atualmente este mercado. A probabilidade de referência entre plataformas da CoinRithm para Democratic Party é de 66%. As plataformas não concordam sobre qual resultado está à frente.
Referencia CoinRithm Democratic Party 66% · 3 plataformas · 0 pt de dispersao entre venues
- Também disponível em ForecastEx — Will the Republican Party win a US Senate Majority in the 2026 general election? · No 64%
- Também disponível em Kalshi — Which party will win the U.S. Senate? · Democratic Party 65%
- Também disponível em Polymarket — Which party will win the Senate in 2026? · Democratic Party 65%
