KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosSem cotações ao vivo
Dados de 10 de set. de 2026, 19:40 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidade implícita atual
Reform UK minority + Conservative support 15%Líder entre 19 opções
Qualidade do mercado
42 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
1,8 mil €
Baixa liquidezSpread
4.9 pt
Spread moderadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 minutos
21/05/26, 14:00 UTC1/01/30, 15:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiRegras
If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
- This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
- Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
- Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
- A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).
Mercados abertos
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- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.7%
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- Gadi Eizenkot-4.2pt56.3%
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- Democratic Party-1.0pt84%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Next government of the United Kingdom??
- A Kalshi cota Reform UK minority + Conservative support em 15% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Next government of the United Kingdom? é resolvido?
- Next government of the United Kingdom? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Next government of the United Kingdom? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.