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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Eleição
  3. Next government of the United Kingdom?
Next government of the United Kingdom?

Next government of the United Kingdom?

EleiçãoPolíticaEuropeOne-OffUS PoliticsChessEsportes3a
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Reform UK majority
Reform UK majority 15%
Líder entre 19 opções
Qualidade do mercado

24 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidez

8,5 €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

8.6% / 15.0%

Spread

74.4%

Spread amplo
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 7 minutos

21/05/26, 14:001/01/30, 15:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Reform UK majority15%

Regras

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
  • This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
  • Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
  • Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
  • A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).

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Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$62,963.68+2.52%SolanaSOL$65.35+1.78%EthereumETH$1,660.88+1.86%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+1.60%XRPXRP$1.12+0.59%BNBBNB$597.16+1.90%

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Regras

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
  • This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
  • Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
  • Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
  • A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).