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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?
Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?

Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?

Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsChina7m
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim
Sim 0%
Qualidade do mercado

24 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidez

0 €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

79.0% / 86.0%

Spread

8.9%

Spread amplo
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 7 minutos

3/06/26, 23:304/02/27, 13:29

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade
Sim
Sim
0%
Não
Não
100%

Resultado escolhido

Yes0%

Regras

If the the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S.
  • Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table.
  • For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China
  • The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion.
  • The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion.

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Regras

If the the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S.
  • Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table.
  • For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China
  • The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion.
  • The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion.