Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

0.4% (24h)One-OffChina5m

KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosCalibração aproximada

Probabilidade implícita atual

Before Jan 1, 2027 7%-0.4%

Líder entre 5 opções

Qualidade do mercado

56 / 100

Qualidade média

Volume 24h

215,5 €

Liquidez

222,9 mil €

Alta liquidez

Compra / Venda

4.5% / 7.0%

Spread

55.6%

Spread amplo

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 7 minutos

7/01/26, 15:001/01/27, 4:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Before Jul 1, 2026

Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro

Resultado escolhido

Before Jan 1, 20277%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify.
The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region.
A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.
A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Tendência de volume

$245

2 de jul.24d de dados26 de jul.

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Regras

State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify.
The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region.
A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.
A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

0.4% (24h)One-OffChina5m

KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosCalibração aproximada

Probabilidade implícita atual

Before Jan 1, 2027 7%-0.4%

Líder entre 5 opções

Qualidade do mercado

56 / 100

Qualidade média

Volume 24h

215,5 €

Liquidez

222,9 mil €

Alta liquidez

Compra / Venda

4.5% / 7.0%

Spread

55.6%

Spread amplo

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 7 minutos

7/01/26, 15:001/01/27, 4:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Before Jul 1, 2026

Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro

Resultado escolhido

Before Jan 1, 20277%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify.
The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region.
A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.
A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Tendência de volume

$245

2 de jul.24d de dados26 de jul.

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65,3 mil €

O/U 2.5 Games: 74%

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30,4 mil €

Alibaba: 75%

POLYMARKET

Chengdu Rongcheng vs Beijing Guoan

23,5 mil €

Chengdu Rongcheng: 48%

KALSHI

Bilibili Gaming vs. Nova Esports

22,3 mil €

Nova Esports: 52%

KALSHI

Best Chinese AI Company this week

7,4 mil €

Moonshot: 6%

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Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$64,493.07+0.69%

EthereumETH$1,885.98+1.50%

SolanaSOL$74.92+1.36%

XRPXRP$1.10+0.98%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0732+5.54%

BNBBNB$570.52+0.96%

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China completes first digital yuan payment to SingaporeCrypto News

Trump’s CLARITY push is now about beating ChinaCrypto News

Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News

Polymarket Taiwan 2026 invasion Yes odds drop to 3.75% on $38.6M volumeBlockchain.News

DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News

Chinese Prosecutors Float Treating Crypto Mixer, Privacy Coin Use as Sign of Money LaunderingDecrypt

Regras

State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify.
The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region.
A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.
A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.