Probabilidade implícita atual
CDU 32%Líder entre 7 opções
Qualidade do mercado
24 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidez
4,8 €
Baixa liquidezCompra / Venda
29.0% / 35.0%
Spread
20.7%
Spread amploDados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 minuto
17/05/26, 14:0020/09/27, 14:00
Tendências
Resultado escolhido
CDU32%
Também disponível em Polymarket
Berlin State Election Winner
1.0%3m
+1.0%30%
+1.5%22%
+0.1%22%
+21 mais resultados
80 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total2,3 M €
Volume 24h4,2 mil €
POLYMARKETRegras
If CDU wins the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.
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If CDU wins the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.