Will the US strike Cuba by ?
PolíticaOne-OffGeopolíticaEsportesAmérica LatinaPolítica dos EUAXadrez2mFutuurVerificar disponibilidadeDados de resolução verificadosAviso de qualidade dos dadosSem cotações ao vivo
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 14:27 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidade implícita atual
December 31 18%
December 31 18%Qualidade do mercado
25 / 100
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1 mil €
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Atualizado há 1 minuto
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This event concerns whether the United States conducts a military strike against the territory of Cuba on or before the date specified in the title (the “Event Period”).
- For the purposes of this event, a qualifying “strike” means the use of aerial or missile weapons by United States military forces or U.S. government-authorized operatives that physically impact Cuban territory or airspace.
- This includes drone strikes, missile strikes (including FPV, cruise, or ballistic missiles), and airborne munition delivery that results in a physical strike on Cuban soil or airspace.
- For this event, the following do not qualify as strikes:
- Interceptions by surface-to-air defenses that prevent a weapon from reaching Cuban territory, even if debris lands on land; Artillery fire, small arms fire, naval gunfire, ground troop incursions, or naval shelling without ordnance delivered from U.S. aerial/missile assets; Cyberattacks, sanctions, advisory missions, intelligence operations, law enforcement activities, or joint actions not officially described as a U.S. military strike; Border confrontations or other incidents that do not involve an officially declared military strike involving U.S. military forces or U.S. government-authorized weapon deployment.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is the official public announcement or record of a qualifying strike by the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House (including the President or official spokespersons), or other relevant U.S. government authority confirming that such a strike occurred.
