Will the US announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops from Europe by the end of 2026?
Política dos EUAOne-OffGeopolíticaEuropa2m
FutuurVerificar disponibilidadeDados de resolução verificadosProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 89%
Não 89%Qualidade do mercado
31 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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325 €
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9
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This market aims to predict whether the United States will announce a reduction of its military personnel presence in Europe by at least 50% (approximately 32,832 people, as of the personnel report for June 2024 by the Defense Manpower Data Center) before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 (UTC-3).
- For this market to resolve as "Yes", the White House, the Department of State, or the Department of Defense must make an official announcement.
- For this market’s purposes, the official announcement will be sufficient to resolve the market to “Yes”, regardless of the practical implementation of the troops' withdrawal by the referred date.
- If multiple partial announcements are made, their total troop withdrawal figures will be cumulative.
- If the required reduction is met across multiple statements before the deadline, the market will resolve as "Yes."
- Reports by reputable news outlets and by the US Congressional Research Service may also be used as secondary sources to resolve this market and detail the number of military personnel members set for withdrawal.
