FutuurVerificar disponibilidadeDados de resolução verificadosProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 92%
Não 92%Qualidade do mercado
31 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
348,8 €
Baixa liquidezTraders
6
Comentários
0
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 minuto
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
John Swinney still First Minister of Scotland through the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Scotland leave the UK by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scotland leave the UK before 2030
Manifold MarketsWho will succeed John Swinney as First Minister of Scotland?
Manifold MarketsIf Scotland leaves the UK, will they join NATO within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRegras
This event predicts whether Scotland will formally become an independent state separate from the United Kingdom at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official UK and Scottish government acts or international recognition confirming independence.
- If Scotland formally becomes an independent state during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Referendums, negotiations, or legislative steps that do not result in formal independence taking effect will not count.
- If official documentation is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.