Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
5.7 ptn (24u)One-OffPolitiekEuropeCrime & JusticeVerkiezing
PolymarketGeslotenBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdDeze markt is beslist: Yes
Afgewikkeld: 9 jul 2026, 03:35
Door provider geverifieerde afwikkeling
CoinRithm heeft provider-onderbouwd bewijs voor de winnaar en afwikkelingstijd van deze markt.
Winnende Uitkomst
Yes
Op 7 dagen afstand
20%
Op 24 uur afstand
94%
ConsensusHuidige impliciete kans
Ja 100%+0.1pt
Marktkwaliteit
45 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
€ 2,9K
Liquiditeit
—
Liquiditeit onbekendBied / Laat
97.6% / 100.0%
Spread
2.4 pt
Gematigde spread7d wijziging
+80.8 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 53 dagen geleden
Verouderd19 jan 26, 20:2131 mrt 26, 0:00
Waarschijnlijkheidstijdlijn
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Regels
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race.
- The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12.
- You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings.
