PolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
Thorsten Frei 98%+0.5%Koploper van 34 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit
91 / 100
Hoge kwaliteit24u volume
€ 735,1
Liquiditeit
€ 77,5K
Hoge liquiditeitBied / Laat
97.5% / 98.5%
Spread
1.0%
Strakke spread7d wijziging
+56.0%
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 19 minuten geleden
18 jul 26, 21:0829 jul 26, 23:59
Trends
Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies
Gekozen uitkomst
Thorsten Frei98%
Volumetrend
$83620 jul7d aan data26 jul
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On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).
- This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.
- The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn.
- Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.
- If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.