Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
GeopolitiekMetaculusGeslotenNiet-geverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensDeze markt is beslist: No
Niet-geverifieerde afwikkelingsdata
Deze uitkomst is afgeleid of wordt niet ondersteund door provider-grade afwikkelingsbewijs.
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 99.9%
Voorspellers
978
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Community forecast
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 146 dagen geleden
Verouderd15 nov 16, 19:46 UTC31 jan 27, 23:59 UTC
Waarschijnlijkheidstijdlijn
Yes0.1%
No99.9%
99.9%
0.1%
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Regels
Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).
- Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
- We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
- This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
- It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name
Open markten
Geopolitics
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POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
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POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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- 24u volume
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POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
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POLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027??
- Metaculus prijst No op 100% per 27 april 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 31 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Metaculus wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).