Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 90.6%
Voorspellers
21
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd25 jun 26, 23:08 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiWill a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
KalshiRegels
alt title: "Musk and Trump no longer bffs?"
- Resolves YES on:
- any temporary, "you must delay release to allow US gov to use first" situations, or
- any model being pulled from public availability, for any amount of time
- any model being restricted to US only or similar
- Not enough to count:
Open markten
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-10.0pt52.9%
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt45.1%
- 25 bps decrease-1.9pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 4,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,7 mln.
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.2pt93%
- Yes+2.2pt7%
- Totaal volume
- € 18,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 551,6K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 27,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 549,5K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt16%
+48 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
- Before Jan 1, 2027-5.0pt39%
- Before Dec 1, 202631.7%
- Before Nov 1, 202617.9%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 462,4K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+3.0pt56%
- D-House, R-Senate32%
- Republicans sweep-3.0pt11%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 12,9 mln.
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Maine Senate winner?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 91% per 16 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: alt title: "Musk and Trump no longer bffs?"