KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
Nee 89%
Marktkwaliteit
74 / 100
Gemiddelde kwaliteit24u volume
€ 1,3K
Liquiditeit
€ 36,8K
Hoge liquiditeitBied / Laat
9.0% / 11.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Gematigde spreadMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 minuten geleden
4 jan 26, 03:00 UTC1 jan 27, 15:00 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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Manifold MarketsRegels
If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Afwikkeling via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls)
- The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 241,3K
- 24u volume
- € 128K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 349,4K
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- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year??
- Kalshi prijst No op 89% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? afgewikkeld?
- Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? afgewikkeld?
- Kalshi wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Waar wordt Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? nog meer aangeboden?
- Dezelfde vraag wordt ook aangeboden op Polymarket.