Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 70.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Vertraagd22 mrt 26, 03:03 UTC1 jan 27, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will JPMorgan force their employees to use generative AI for analyses, reports or other work in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiTrump renames AI by September 30?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms a generative AI system (e.g., LLM, VLM, VLA) autonomously authorized and executed a successful lethal strike against a human target without a human operator issuing the final execution command.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Full Autonomy: The AI independently identified the target and initiated the strike.
- (Note: If a human was monitoring "on-the-loop" but the AI executed the strike before they could or did intervene, this counts as YES).
- Generative Architecture: The system utilized a transformer-based or multimodal architecture capable of semantic reasoning.
- If the exact architecture is classified, credible reporting must explicitly describe the system as using generative AI, LLMs, VLMs, VLAs, or complex semantic reasoning.
Open markten
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
- Melania+11.0pt49%
- China (5+ times)-16.0pt45%
- Peace-37.0pt35%
+25 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 221,1K
- 24u volume
- € 203,7K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.9pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-1.5pt12.8%
- Gemini+1.7pt8.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,5 mln.
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.3pt99%
- OpenAI-0.1pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude-1.0pt89.8%
- ChatGPT1.9%
- Gemini+1.0pt1.9%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 155K
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No+1.0pt69.3%
- Yes-1.0pt30.7%
- Totaal volume
- € 153,5K
- 24u volume
- € 63,2K
KALSHIWhat will Scott Bessent say during Special Report with Bret Baier?
- Trump (3+ times)1%
- Democrat1%
- Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation1%
+15 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 41,7K
- 24u volume
- What will Cory Booker say during The Weeknight?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 70.7% per 24 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms a generative AI system (e.g., LLM, VLM, VLA) autonomously authorized and executed a successful lethal strike against a human target without a human operator issuing the final execution command.