Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 88.6%
Nee 88.6%Voorspellers
79
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd21 dec 23, 15:51 UTC1 mrt 29, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill we get AGI before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
KalshiRegels
Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) refers to a level of artificial intelligence that surpasses the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills.
- Unlike Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which matches human capabilities, ASI exceeds them, demonstrating superior problem-solving and inventive skills, advanced learning and adaptive capabilities, and unparalleled reasoning and planning abilities.
- ASI embodies not only the ability to perform tasks that require human-like intelligence but also the capacity to achieve goals with efficiency and effectiveness far beyond human capabilities.
- It represents an evolution in AI, where machines are not just equal, but distinctly superior to the best human brains in every field, including scientific understanding, general knowledge, and emotional intelligence.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2029
- Markets with the same criteria: