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Bijgewerkt 19 uur geleden
Verouderd30 aug 26, 17:19 UTC29 aug 28, 23:59 UTC
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Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Nate Soares and Ajeya Cotra say that the Hugging Face hack might have been our last warning shot.
- Reasons this might resolve yes:
- Nate Soares calling something else a warning shot
- Ajeya Cotra calling something else a warning shot
- Either of them say they were wrong
- Something that's "bigger" than the Hugging Face hack and contained by humans
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will we get another warning shot before August 30, 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 68% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will we get another warning shot before August 30, 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Will we get another warning shot before August 30, 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 29 augustus 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will we get another warning shot before August 30, 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Nate Soares and Ajeya Cotra say that the Hugging Face hack might have been our last warning shot.