Will Trump fire a Nuke into Iran before 2027?
2.8 ptn (24u)PolitiekOne-OffMidden-OostenSportCricketGeopolitiekAmerikaanse politiek1mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 95.3%+2.8pt
Voorspellers
4
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+45.3 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd2 nov 26, 09:43 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to Yes if, before January 1, 2027 (11:59:59 PM UTC), the United States military, acting under the executive authority or direct order of Donald Trump as President of the United States, detonates a nuclear weapon inside the internationally recognized sovereign territory or airspace of Iran.
- This market resolves to No if Donald Trump leaves office, ceases to be President, or if no such detonation occurs before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution will rely on official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or confirmation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or United Nations Security Council, corroborated by multiple major news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).
- Conventional strikes, cyber warfare, or covert sabotage of nuclear facilities do not qualify.
- The weapon must be an actual nuclear explosive device detonated inside Iran.
