Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
0.1% (24u)US PoliticsPolitiekOne-OffGeopolitiekMiddle EastRussia / UkraineEurope5mnd
PolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kansJa 7%
Marktkwaliteit
71 / 100
Gemiddelde kwaliteit24u volume
€ 36
Liquiditeit
€ 14K
Gemiddelde liquiditeitBied / Laat
7.2% / 7.4%
Spread
2.8%
Strakke spread7d wijziging
+0.1%
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 minuten geleden
13 nov 25, 23:1231 dec 26, 0:00
Trends
Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies
Gekozen uitkomst
Yes7%
Volumetrend
$412 jul21d aan data26 jul
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution.
- Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count.
- Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".