Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?
GeopolitiekOne-Off4j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 71%
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7
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Verouderd30 nov 23, 02:39 UTC31 dec 30, 22:59 UTC
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Regels
Regional war = a war involving more than 3 states in the same region (South America), waged by national or coalition armed forces in the course of which the sides are pursuing important territorial, economic, military or other objectives.
- Conflicts causing at least 1,000 deaths in one calendar year are considered wars by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program.
- This is the threshold I will also be using for this market.
- I will by using ACLED and UCDP data - any of those two trackers crossing the 1,000 death mark will trigger a YES resolution.
