Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 51.3%
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7
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 16 uur geleden
Verouderd11 jun 25, 20:18 UTC21 jan 29, 11:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
The pentagon has launched a review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal:
- https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/trump-administration-launches-review-biden-era-defense-pact-with-australia-uk-2025-06-11/
- Resolves YES if the US withdraws from the pact, or substantially downgrades its involvment in it, while Trump is president.
- As this could easily fall into a grey zone, I will not place any bet in this market.
- If the outcome is ambiguous, I will rely on a combination of sources and trader input to determine whether the Trump administration effectively "withdrew the US from AUKUS".