Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffAISociety & Culture4mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 63.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd6 nov 25, 16:37 UTC1 feb 27, 00:00 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba+2.0pt69%
- Moonshot-9.5pt14%
- Z.ai-2.3pt6%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 75,1K
- 24u volume
- € 61,5K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.3pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+1.9pt15.5%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,8 mln.
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+2.5pt85.4%
- Moonshot-0.3pt9.7%
- Z.ai-3.4pt1.9%
+8 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%98%
- Above 2.55%+18.0pt94%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 61,1K
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 extra uitkomsten
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 63% per 17 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.