Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 07:03 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 85%
Voorspellers
9
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd12 sep 23, 10:06 UTC1 jan 31, 20:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill NASA build an operational nuclear power plant on the moon by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any reactor of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant be operational in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Helion Energy have a power plant in operation by the end of 2028?
ForecastExWill any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?
FutuurRegels
The market resolves as YES if a nuclear power plant used primarily for electricity production has at least a partial meltdown (as in Three Miles Island) before the end of 2030.
- The meltdown should be bad enough to require the shutdown of the reactor.
- It would not necessarily lead to the release of radioactive material (the meltdown could be fully contained).
- The market resolves as NO if no such accident occured.
- Voluntary meltdown of fuel assemblies for research purposes in small research facilities are excluded.
- Only power plants are considered, submarine/ship reactors are excluded.
