Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?
One-OffAIRusland / OekraïneChinaGeopolitiekPolitiek4j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 83.1%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 32 minuten geleden
12 jan 26, 08:07 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
This market resolves YES if a leader of a nuclear power not canonically aligned with the West (China, Russia, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) makes a public statement before January 1, 2031 that frames superhuman AI systems as a grave threat to their nation's sovereignty, and expresses an implicit or explicit willingness to act decisively on the basis of that threat.
- This could include:
- Arguing that a rival's creation of ASI would likely undermine national sovereignty, either by loss of control or domination by an ASI-wielding rival
- Calling for international bans or severe restrictions on ASI development
- Framing ASI as comparable to or exceeding nuclear weapons as a threat to the state
- Threatening or calling for preemptive military action against ASI development
