Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 96.6%
Voorspellers
23
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 minuten geleden
23 jun 26, 19:58 UTC23 sep 26, 19:56 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
PolymarketUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
PolymarketIF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030?
Manifold MarketsCongress approves Iran deal in 2026?
Polymarket5th Fleet Stranded as result of Iran Deal?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" (also referred to as the Versailles agreement), signed by the United States and Iran on June 17, 2026, remains active and holds through September 17, 2026 (exactly three months after its signing).
- The market will resolve to NO if any of the following events occur prior to 11:59 PM UTC on September 17, 2026:
- Either the United States or Iran formally withdraws from, terminates, or nullifies the memorandum of understanding (or any subsequent comprehensive peace treaty that officially replaces it).
- Direct, state-level military hostilities resume between the United States (or Israel) and Iranian military forces, such as resumed airstrikes on Iranian sovereign territory or direct military clashes in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz.
- Either country officially reinstates a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or Iranian ports.
Open markten
Politics
KALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+81.8pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-81.6pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.7pt0%
- Totaal volume
- € 957,3K
- 24u volume
- € 760,7K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.1%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,7 mln.
- 24u volume
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.5%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-1.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.6pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.1%
- Édouard Philippe32%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 97% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months? afgewikkeld?
- Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months? wordt naar verwachting op 23 september 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria