Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?
PolitiekOne-OffEuropeVerkiezingGeopolitiek3jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 58.8%
Voorspellers
15
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd20 mei 26, 21:00 UTC31 dec 29, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiNext Canadian federal election winner?
KalshiWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the government coalition currently led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz (comprising the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union and the Social Democratic Party) remains in power until the next scheduled federal election.
- The market will resolve to NO if the coalition dissolves, a new government is formed, or a snap election is called prior to the next scheduled federal election in early 2029.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the German Federal Government, the Federal President, or the Bundestag confirming the stability or formal dissolution of the governing coalition.
- Authoritative sources include the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiterin) and major credible news outlets reporting on German government changes.
- The 21st German Bundestag was constituted on March 25, 2025, following early federal elections held on February 23, 2025.
Open markten
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 691,8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,1 mln.
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,6 mln.
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 59% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029? afgewikkeld?
- Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria