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Verouderd18 sep 25, 10:37 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
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PolymarketNext leader out of power before 2027?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level.
- This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority.
- Tolerating a minority government does not count.
- I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government.
- Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party.
- There are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.
