Will "Shutdown Resistance in Reasoning Models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will "Shutdown Resistance in Reasoning Models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prijst No op 81% per 20 oktober 2026.

Wanneer wordt Will "Shutdown Resistance in Reasoning Models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?

Will "Shutdown Resistance in Reasoning Models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2027 afgewikkeld.

Hoe wordt Will "Shutdown Resistance in Reasoning Models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?

Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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KALSHI

DeepSeek market share this week

• Above 22.7%98.5%
• Above 23.8%98.5%
• Above 24.6%91.5%

+6 extra uitkomsten

Totaal volume

€ 175,9K

24u volume

€ 174,9K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+1.3pt52.2%
• Gemini-2.2pt37.5%
• ChatGPT-0.7pt

KALSHI

Best AI this week

• Gemini84.5%
• Claude13%
• MUSE1.5%

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31-0.7pt97%
• October 31+7.4pt91%
• October 24+1.0pt60%

+11 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+5.6pt75%
• Anthropic-5.0pt24%
• OpenAI-0.1pt1%

+18 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T25%
• $2.0–$2.25T-0.8pt20.2%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.1pt16.4%

+7 extra uitkomsten

• OpenAI market share this week
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Anthropic share of spend on Oct 20, 2026 (Vercel)
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
• Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
• Anthropic market share this week
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Best AI in Oct 2026?