Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 51.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 22 uur geleden
Verouderd1 jan 26, 18:13 UTC17 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Reform UK vote percent
KalshiNext Reform Leader
SmarketsRegels
Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025.
- However, they are a relatively new party whose main attraction is a single, controversial figure.
- How unstable is the party, and its lead in the polls?
- Resolves YES if Reform UK falls and then stays below 20% in the Politico Poll of Polls for a period of 14 consecutive days, all of which must fall within 2026 (i.e. the streak cannot start after 17th December).
- Otherwise resolves NO on 17th December.
- This requires polling <20% i.e. not <=20%
Open markten
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.1%
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.5%
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+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-1.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.6pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.1%
- Édouard Philippe32%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
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- IA-01 House winner?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 52% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 17 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025.