Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 60.3%
Voorspellers
40
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 59 minuten geleden
Vertraagd1 jan 26, 18:13 UTC17 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRegels
Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025.
- However, they are a relatively new party whose main attraction is a single, controversial figure.
- How unstable is the party, and its lead in the polls?
- Resolves YES if Reform UK falls and then stays below 20% in the Politico Poll of Polls for a period of 14 consecutive days, all of which must fall within 2026 (i.e. the streak cannot start after 17th December).
- Otherwise resolves NO on 17th December.
- This requires polling <20% i.e. not <=20%
