Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 76%
Ja 76%Voorspellers
74
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd24 mrt 23, 01:08 UTC1 jan 30, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
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Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegels
For this market to resolve "YES":
- We need three major polls with a >50% "yes" response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
- We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
- If we don't see three such polls before 2030, this market resolves NO.
