Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingIn 2028, AI be as big a political issue as abortion 91.1%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
61
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd10 okt 23, 05:23 UTC17 okt 30, 18:29 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Will resolve at the end of each year according to Scott's original resolution:
- I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion??
- Manifold Markets prijst In 2028, AI be as big a political issue as abortion op 91% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion? afgewikkeld?
- Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion? wordt naar verwachting op 17 oktober 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Will resolve at the end of each year according to Scott's original resolution: