Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 80.4%
Voorspellers
3
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd7 apr 26, 11:20 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegels
Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.
- Reception was mixed.
- This resolves YES iff by EOY, Paolo Cascini marks the problem as settled and credits ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf.
- The point of this market is that betting that your approach works shows that your submission is serious, rewards you iff your approach works, and rewards potential counterparties for investigating your approach.
Open markten
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 102,1K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,4 mln.
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 extra uitkomsten
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 44,4K
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 80% per 10 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? afgewikkeld?
- Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.