Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 74.1%
Voorspellers
49
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd19 mrt 26, 02:05 UTC31 mei 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?
Manifold MarketsWill much AI research be nationalized by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRegels
I have a $1000 bet with Geby Jaff, founder of Archivara, on this market.
- I am on the NO side, Geby is on the YES side.
- I will trade this market, but I will resolve according to the votes of the judges.
- The loser of the bet agrees to pay the winner $1000.
- Resolution criteria: A panel of 3 pre-agreed judges reviews the top 20 AI research papers published in May 2027.
- For each paper, judges assess: "Was the research primarily conducted by giving an AI agent a single high-level research goal (e.g. 'Can narrow finetuning produce broadly misaligned LLMs?'), after which the agent autonomously executed the full pipeline: literature review, hypothesis formation, experiment design, code implementation, running experiments, debugging, analyzing results, and writing up findings, with the human only stepping in to approve, reject, or minimally redirect at natural checkpoints?"
Open markten
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 102,1K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,4 mln.
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 extra uitkomsten
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 44,4K
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 74% per 10 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 31 mei 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: I have a $1000 bet with Geby Jaff, founder of Archivara, on this market.